Fall Market Forecast 2018

Strengthening consumer engagement and robust economic fundamentals in the nation’s largest housing market are projected to drive Canadian top-tier real estate performance this fall, as sales over $1 million rebound in Toronto. New data compiled by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada reveal that the Greater Toronto Area’s residential real estate activity over $1Million and luxury properties activity over $4 million are gaining traction, as summer sales rose 19% and 34% year-over-year respectively.

In contrast, activity and pricing in Vancouver’s top-tier real estate market are poised to decelerate as the market responds to rising interest rates and the cooling effects of recent housing taxes and policies. Activity across the city’s single family and previously resilient attached and condominium markets diminished over the summer, resulting in a 24% decline in sales over $1 million and a 33% decline in luxury sales over $4 million. Montreal’s $1 million-plus real estate sales increased 19% year-over-year in July and August, and the city remains well positioned to set new records towards the end of 2018. Top-tier market performance in Calgary remains volatile. Following an 11% drop in sales over $1 million in the first half of 2018, sales increased 9% year-over-year in July and August of 2018, however, the risk of a surge in additional inventory remains.

“Toronto’s top-tier real estate market is positioned for a turnaround this fall. Since the introduction of Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan in April 2017, the market has maintained ground in spite of rapid policy changes, as well as rising mortgage rates and tighter lending guidelines. Market psychology has now adjusted and we expect the fall market to be more active,” says Brad Henderson, President & CEO, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “In contrast, high-end sales and prices are softening in Vancouver, not only in the single family home segment, but across the city’s heated condominium and attached home markets. In the upcoming fall market, it will be buyers and investors who will hold the upper hand.”

According to Henderson, recovery in Calgary’s top-tier real estate market has remained unsettled, in parallel to the city’s economic progress, while luxury sales in Montreal are projected to end the year on a positive note.


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